On 24 December 2025 the modelled gust at San Clemente reached about 46 mph, a strong but not severe reading that would not rip off a sound roof but would exploit anything already loose, like a lifted shingle tab or an unsealed ridge cap.
How strong was the December 24 wind, actually
According to the Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis archive, the daily maximum 10 m wind gust modelled at San Clemente on 24 December 2025 was about 46 mph. That number comes from a model at the city location, not a mast reading in the street, so treat it as a comparison point against other days rather than an exact figure for any one roof.
Forty-six mph sits in the strong band. The severe threshold used for these comparisons is 58 mph, and this event came in well under that line. Strong gusts do not typically tear off a roof that was properly fastened to begin with. They find the parts that were already compromised and finish the job.
What a 46 mph gust actually does to shingles and tile
A gust in this range is enough to flex a shingle tab that has already lost its seal, pry at a nail that backed out a half inch, or shift a tile that was never properly hooked over its batten. None of that requires a dramatic storm. It requires one afternoon of sustained pressure finding the weak point, and 46 mph gusts can sustain that pressure for long enough to do it.
What it is less likely to do is lift a shingle that is correctly sealed and nailed, or displace a tile that is properly interlocked. The difference between a roof that sheds a few tabs in this wind and one that loses nothing usually comes down to installation quality and age, not the storm itself.
Is this storm worth checking the roof after
According to the storm record for San Clemente, days in the 46 mph range are common enough that they do not each warrant a formal inspection on their own, but they are exactly the kind of event that catches up with a roof over several seasons. One gust like this probably does nothing. Ten of them, on a roof that already has loose tabs or exposed nail heads, adds up.
The more useful move is a visual check from the ground: look for shingles that are visibly lifted at the edge, tile that looks shifted out of its course line, or granules collecting in a gutter downspout. None of that requires climbing anything.
What to do if you find something after this wind
If a shingle tab is lifted, a tile looks displaced, or flashing around a vent has pulled loose, that is a repair job, not a wait-and-see situation. Loose material at 46 mph becomes missing material at the next gust event, and a small fix now is cheaper than a leak after the next storm finds the same spot.
The way to get that fixed is to put the request in front of local contractors who cover the San Clemente ZIP code. Submitting it takes under 60 seconds and up to three contractors who cover that ZIP can respond, but nobody reviews or inspects the roof on the reader's behalf. Submit the request and let a contractor make the call in person.